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Dec 7, 2012
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sandy, the election, holiday workers. you say three asterisks. >> yeah, i think it has to have three asterisks, it doesn't fit in with initial claims and other items. they said sandy had no impact on the number. i think that may be because the number was basically taken before the impact was held. i think they're going to see a lot of revisions here. >> next week setting up. it's going to be another big one. same store sales from various companies and, of course, the fed. >> the fed is important. it's another one of those two-day meetings. they're going to take down operation twist. this will be important because he gets to announce at a press conference. that gives them a chance to explain what the mood of the meeting was. it will give them a chance to hear what the new proposal, qe whatever, is supposed to do and how they want to set it up. so i think the markets will hone in on that very, very carefully. >> do you think we see an acceleration of purchases, a revamp of twists? will there be an event as i said earlier? >
sandy, the election, holiday workers. you say three asterisks. >> yeah, i think it has to have three asterisks, it doesn't fit in with initial claims and other items. they said sandy had no impact on the number. i think that may be because the number was basically taken before the impact was held. i think they're going to see a lot of revisions here. >> next week setting up. it's going to be another big one. same store sales from various companies and, of course, the fed. >>...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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i respectfully disagree that the only democrats got elected in the past election. there was still a majority in the house of representatives republican that would return to office they ought not take ownership of something that will reduce jobs and growth. they ought not to do that or they'll be responsible for what happens in the next four years. let the democrats have their tax increases and you'll see what happens. >> as you speak, we have a fiscal cliff countdown clock right beneath you, 27 days and 12 hours. gentlemen, appreciate your time. thanks so much. >> thank you. governors gilmore and davis. >>> let's get to brian sullivan with the market flash. brian? >>> perhaps not happy here, carl, pby is falling today. they swupg to a third quarter loss. you can see the stock is down 13%, $6.8 million loss, basically 13 cents per adjusted share of a loss. wall street was expecting a prof profit. sales fell 2.4% quarter over quarter. of course the whole autoparts phase with a lot of action around this name, pby has been stuck in an $8 to $12 range for the better par
i respectfully disagree that the only democrats got elected in the past election. there was still a majority in the house of representatives republican that would return to office they ought not take ownership of something that will reduce jobs and growth. they ought not to do that or they'll be responsible for what happens in the next four years. let the democrats have their tax increases and you'll see what happens. >> as you speak, we have a fiscal cliff countdown clock right beneath...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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we thought it would be weak during an election year. there's a whole body of academic evidence that public policy certainly does impair it. but we were stunned as early as the first quarter of this year to see the tech sector, ibm, talking about flat revenue growth in the u.s., and there we think there's a level of cap-ex that has just been foregone because of this public policy uncertainty that, even in a semistable environment, it should rebound a bit. and that could be a big driver for profit growth in '14. >> you point out that your sector positioning, you say it's cautious, but you are upping technology to overweight. underweighting domestic cyclical. if cap-ex is a phenomenon next year why would you not be more highly leveraged to that? >> well, we think that first of all, the numbers, and the valuations, look fully played out. we think they still have housing market euphoria. and, have looked at things like consumer confidence going up, at least until friday, as a result of house prices stabilizing. for us, that's the reason why
we thought it would be weak during an election year. there's a whole body of academic evidence that public policy certainly does impair it. but we were stunned as early as the first quarter of this year to see the tech sector, ibm, talking about flat revenue growth in the u.s., and there we think there's a level of cap-ex that has just been foregone because of this public policy uncertainty that, even in a semistable environment, it should rebound a bit. and that could be a big driver for...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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i think businesses are holding back partly because of the election, which is now passed obviously. and the fiscal cliff. i still believe that we're going to end up kicking the can down the road. i think there's lots of pent-up demand in the economy so we're not going to go into a recession. in fact, i think next year we could see some acceleration. one of the key ways to see this is just to look at auto sales for november. they surged to 15.5 million. every time we have a dip in demand because of sandy or something else, we come back. this economy is super resilient and i think we'll be able to go over the cliff or go through the cliff without having a recession. >> i hope you're right. my concern is that you are absolutely wrong. actually the economy is slowing to stall speed and markets could correct badly on the news moving forward. we learned this week that manufacturing contracted in november for the first time in three months. we had analysts on the program talking about the channel checks indicating softness for a second month and today goldman has downgraded growth in the f
i think businesses are holding back partly because of the election, which is now passed obviously. and the fiscal cliff. i still believe that we're going to end up kicking the can down the road. i think there's lots of pent-up demand in the economy so we're not going to go into a recession. in fact, i think next year we could see some acceleration. one of the key ways to see this is just to look at auto sales for november. they surged to 15.5 million. every time we have a dip in demand because...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier perhaps in the new year. now the good news is there isn't a huge amount of blowout on the bonds at the short end of the italian markets. the yields are higher but not huge relative to where we've been but on the ten-year italian market you can see we're slightly higher but no great shakes overall. it means the rally in the peripheral bond market we've witnessed in italy and spain has now stalled at this stage. remember we had the auction in spain yesterday and the yields are slightly higher relative to where we've been, they're still relatively depressed. we talk about the problems in europe, i thought it was worth pointing out amidst all the malaise what is happening in germany today an astounding manufacturing german manufacturing orders result from germany up 3.9% in october, a phenomenal performance from german industry and it's worth bearing in mind that german industry is basically in a single currency that is too low arguably for what it should be at. the deutsche mark would ha
we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier perhaps in the new year. now the good news is there isn't a huge amount of blowout on the bonds at the short end of the italian markets. the yields are higher but not huge relative to where we've been but on the ten-year italian market you can see we're slightly higher but no great shakes overall. it means the rally in the peripheral bond market we've witnessed in italy and spain has now...
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Dec 3, 2012
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doing precisely that. >> got through the election on social issues. on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i think is a bad idea, that's 30 to $35 billion a year. i heard many democrats say that's a small amount, why shouldn't we do that? that's about halfway to the total amount they're talking about taxes. but whent's that, it's small. but when it's the 70 to $80 billion am toortized over ten years, all of a sudden it's big. i'm not saying don't raise taxes. if i signed the pledge, i would do it for good reasons. i haven't seen a good reason. i haven't seen a plan that promotes the big guy in the room. >> see you in the next hou
doing precisely that. >> got through the election on social issues. on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the...